Russians are advancing on Pokrovsk and making progress in Kurakhove, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine have pushed forward in Kursk, according to ISW maps.

The situation at the front remains tense, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have achieved some successes. In particular, the Defense Forces have advanced in the Kursk region. They have also managed to regain previously lost positions near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast. At the same time, the occupiers have made advances in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv Oblast and in Toretsk and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on the current situation at the front in Ukraine. It is noted that Russian troops recently captured Novopustynka (southwest of Pokrovsk and west of Zhovte) and advanced to the southern outskirts of Shevchenkove. There are also reports that Russian forces either entered the northern part of Novotroitske or completely seized it. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not confirmed these claims.

Russian bloggers are also reporting renewed attacks east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) near Hrodivka and Mykolaivka, as well as offensive actions southeast of Pokrovsk near Dachenke (east of Shevchenkove). Additionally, they claim attacks supported by armored vehicles near Sukhy Yar and Lysivka (both settlements northeast of Dachenke).

The shift of Russian forces north towards Shevchenkove marks a significant change in the orientation of attacks in this area. Previously, Russian forces focused on advancing west of Selydove. The redeployment of units from the 90th Tank Division and more intensive attacks near Dachenke and east of Myrnohrad indicate a shift in priorities on this section of the front.

It is likely that the Russian command believes it has allocated sufficient forces and resources to capture Kurakhove, bypass Velyka Novosilka, and stabilize the front in western Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.

Moreover, Russian troops continue frontal mechanized and infantry assaults, gradually advancing into the eastern and central parts of Kurakhove, as well as south towards Dalniy. This supports broader Russian efforts to eliminate the last Ukrainian pockets of resistance between Dalniy and Kurakhove. The Russian command is also satisfied with advances northwest of Vuhledar towards Kostiantynivka, Uspenivka, and Sukhy Yar. This allows them to encircle the Ukrainian resistance pocket from Kostiantynivka to Dalniy and align the front line in the western part of Donetsk Oblast along the Dachne-Sukhy Yar line.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have advanced north, east, and south of Velyka Novosilka as part of their efforts to encircle this settlement. The Russian command likely believes that tactical successes in eliminating Ukrainian positions north and south of Kurakhove and north of Vuhledar will enable them to resume offensive actions to capture Pokrovsk.

1

Situation near Pokrovsk

Russian forces are likely attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the west and compel Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to avoid the need for frontal attacks on the eastern and southern approaches to these cities. Initially, the Russian command identified a direct assault on Pokrovsk as the main focus of its summer-autumn campaign for 2024, but later changed plans, assessing that Russian forces would not be able to capture the city through direct assault, analysts believe.

Instead, the Russian command has marked the elimination of Ukrainian pockets of resistance near Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and later Velyka Novosilka as a prerequisite for encircling Pokrovsk from the south through Selydove. It is likely that Russian forces plan to advance from the Novotroitske-Novopustynka area towards Udachny (west of Pokrovsk) and Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) to encircle the city from the south and west. The Russians likely aim to intercept control over the T-05-15, T-04-06, and M-30 routes to the southwest and west of Pokrovsk to complicate the logistics of Ukrainian troops and force them to retreat without the need for costly frontal attacks.

Russian command may redeploy troops from the directions of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, including additional units from the 90th Tank Division or elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army, formerly the "DPR" corps). However, this is likely to occur only after achieving tactical objectives in these areas to ensure a more advantageous geography for the battlefield. The troops currently operating in the areas of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka are likely exhausted from months of fighting and may struggle to capitalize on initial tactical successes in the direction of Pokrovsk.

Attempts to encircle Pokrovsk from the flanks will require significantly more time, manpower, and armored vehicles than frontal attacks, as Russian troops will have to advance over great distances and capture additional settlements. Ukrainian forces are likely to attempt to organize active defense in this area. One of the Russian military bloggers expressed concern on December 7 that well-fortified Ukrainian defensive positions and the effective operation of Ukrainian drones near Shevchenkove and Novotroitske could complicate further Russian advances.

Ukrainian drone units have played a critical role in restraining Russia's ability to conduct mechanized operations in the direction of Pokrovsk in mid-2024, forcing the Russian command to abandon a frontal assault in late summer 2024. The successful use of drones by Ukrainian forces could again force the Russians to switch to exhausting infantry attacks in urban areas of Pokrovsk if Ukrainian troops can sufficiently delay and disrupt Russian attempts to encircle the city.

2

Russian military command is likely to continue trading material resources and manpower reserves for tactical territorial gains during the assault on Pokrovsk in 2025. The Kremlin is unlikely to abandon the costly campaign to capture Pokrovsk, which aligns with the long-standing Russian goal of establishing control over the rest of Donetsk Oblast. It is expected that Russian forces will continue attempts to capture Pokrovsk after winter 2024-2025 and throughout spring 2025. The British Ministry of Defense recently reported that in November 2024, Russian troops suffered record-high losses, averaging 1,523 personnel per day, with a total exceeding 45,000 losses for the month. Intense offensive operations in Ukraine, especially in western Donetsk Oblast, have created unacceptable pressure on Russia's mobilization system and its economy.

The Russian authorities are likely to have to balance increasing personnel losses and pressure to implement unpopular partial mobilization of reservists, which will only exacerbate labor shortages and economic problems, against the desire to capture Pokrovsk and the rest of Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the main bulge in the Kursk region amid ongoing fighting in the area on December 7. Geolocation materials published on December 7 indicate that Ukrainian troops have advanced in the central part of the village of Pechery and have likely captured Orlovka, Maliy Loknya, Stara Sorochyna, and Nova Sorochyna (all northwest of Suja).

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Plyekhove (southeast of Suja), near Novoiivanka (southeast of Korenove) and Maliy Loknya. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not observed any confirmation of these claims.

A Ukrainian serviceman operating in the Kursk region stated on December 7 that Russian troops have begun the second phase of their counteroffensive operation aimed at driving Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. A spokesperson for one of the Ukrainian brigades operating in the Kursk direction reported that Russian forces are conducting attacks with mechanized columns, but Ukrainian forces are successfully destroying Russian armored vehicles during these assaults.

A Russian military blogger stated that Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack near the village of Daryne (southeast of Korenove). It is reported that a Russian drone unit "Baskan" and Chechen special forces "Akhmat" are operating in the Kursk region.

3

Situation in Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces continued ground attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast on December 7, but no confirmed advances were recorded. Russian troops carried out ground attacks along the international border north of Kharkiv towards Kozacha Lopan and Vysoka Yaruga, north of Kharkiv near Lypytsiv, as well as northeast of Kharkiv in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhyi on December 6 and 7.

A spokesperson for one of the Ukrainian brigades operating in the Vovchansk direction stated that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups are attempting to infiltrate the rear of Ukrainian positions. He also noted that Russian forces continue to suffer significant losses but still have