Give birth to five children or welcome migrants from Bangladesh: what future awaits Ukraine?

The demographic situation in Ukraine remains challenging: natural population growth is not being achieved, and birth rates continue to decline. According to demographer Oleksandr Gladun, Deputy Director for Scientific Work at the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, for a stable population size, 100 women of reproductive age need to give birth to 210–220 children. However, currently, this figure is estimated to be only 90–100 children per 100 women. Before the full-scale invasion in 2021, this figure was slightly higher at 116 children.

The President of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, Vasyl Voskoboynik, outlined possible options for preserving the country in the future, including its economic component: encouraging Ukrainian women to have 5–7 children, or seeking to attract labor migrants from third-world countries.

Factors hindering childbirth: social networks?

The decline in birth rates is characteristic of most European countries. However, in Ukraine, the problem is exacerbated by war, economic difficulties, and uncertainty about the future. One of the main factors influencing reproductive decisions among Ukrainians is their financial situation. High housing prices, low salaries, and insufficient social support hinder the growth of birth rates. Before the war, Ukrainian families were primarily oriented towards having two children, but the realization of this intention depends on economic conditions.

Furthermore, according to the demographer, there are studies indicating that social networks also influence birth rates. Young people are increasingly immersing themselves in the virtual world instead of actively engaging in real life. As a result, the level of communication decreases, and marriages occur less frequently.

In consensual unions, that is, without official registration, the birth rate is lower than in the case of official marriages. Additionally, birth rates are lower among couples living in rented housing compared to those who own their homes.

"A wide range of factors impacts demographic indicators, and even specialists find it challenging to determine which specific factor is decisive. Overall, the birth rate is influenced by the general state of society in which the country exists. Right now, we are indeed in such a state," Gladun continues.

Having more children: why Ukrainian women are unlikely to comply

Sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, President of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Professor at NaUKMA, believes that no efforts will compel Ukrainian women to have more children, as this contradicts global trends and our path towards European integration.

According to him, the primary mechanism slowing down birth rates is women's entry into the labor market. In developed countries, women have fewer children because they have access to education, career advancement opportunities, and strive for a better quality of life for their children.

"The processes in Ukraine correspond to those occurring in developed countries. Currently, discussing the issue of birth rates is pointless. All relevant demographic challenges are related to migration, not to birth or mortality rates," asserts the sociologist.

A loss of 50,000 Ukrainians monthly

The pressing demographic problems in Ukraine are primarily associated with mass migration, continues the sociologist. According to data from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, millions of citizens have left the country in the past two years. Paniotto states that some demographers argue that the statistics are inflated and that there are not 6, but 5 million refugees, but the data on dynamics is quite reliable.

Statistics on the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe:

• March 10, 2023 — 8.1 million
• December 19, 2023 — 6.3 million
• February 15, 2024 — 6.0 million
• May 16, 2024 — 5.9 million
• August 19, 2024 — 6.1 million
• November 18, 2024 — 6.2 million
• January 16, 2025 — 6.3 million

"Approximately 50,000 people leave Ukraine each month, and another 100–150 thousand find work, adapt, and decide not to return. According to our research, currently, two-thirds (i.e., 4 out of 6 million) Ukrainians abroad plan to acquire citizenship in the countries where they reside.

Surveys by Deminiciative and the Razumkov Center indicate that about 20% of those currently living in Ukraine plan to emigrate after the war ends (particularly men who will join their families settled abroad). If around 29–30 million people currently live in Ukraine, then an additional 6 million could potentially leave the country. In the event of a swift end to the war, around 23–25 million people would remain in Ukraine. However, even in such a case, the country would still have a larger population than many European states and would possess sufficient natural resources and human potential to become one of the most developed European nations," says Paniotto.

Saving Ukraine — attracting labor migrants?

Vasyl Voskoboynik is also convinced that Ukrainian women will not start giving birth to 5 children, and thus Ukraine inevitably faces the question of attracting labor migrants. But is the country ready to become an attractive destination for them?

In Voskoboynik's opinion, a migration policy strategy should be established at the state level, which will include not only the return of Ukrainians from abroad but also the gradual attraction of foreign specialists.

"One of the common fears among Ukrainians is the possibility of a repeat of the European scenario, where the number of migrants may exceed the proportion of the native population. However, such concerns are unfounded. To date, there is not a single country in Europe where the number of migrants exceeds that of the local population. Germany has the highest rate, where about 20% of residents are individuals who were not born in the country. However, among them are many ethnic Germans who emigrated from the former USSR, as well as Ukrainians who moved there after 2022," explains Voskoboynik.

Considering the demographic realities, the expert sees several pathways out of the crisis. These include:

• Attracting older individuals and people with disabilities to the labor market. However, this strategy has a short-term effect, as natural mortality reduces the number of working-age individuals;
• Expanding opportunities for women in traditionally "male" professions — truck drivers, miners, heavy industry workers;
• Creating conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad — through improving living standards and economic incentives;
• Formulating a new migration policy — not only for the return of citizens but also for attracting foreign specialists.

"However, the main factor that will influence the demographic future of the country is creating a favorable economic climate. Without improving living standards, freedom of entrepreneurship, and government support for new initiatives, it will be difficult to compete for labor resources," notes the president of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies.

Bangladeshi migrants in Ukraine: what's wrong with this idea?

In the information space, proposals to attract foreign labor due to the demographic crisis have not been heard for the first time. However, according to demographer Oleksandr Gladun, there are currently no precise calculations regarding how many people Ukraine will need after the war. Many people have left, and many are at the front. But after the war ends, some people will return, and some will be demobilized. And that could amount to millions, perhaps 3–4 million. The question arises, why do we need to bring anyone in?

"Global experience shows that uncontrolled immigration can create social problems. Europe has already faced difficulties integrating migrants, leading to the formation of parallel societies. Furthermore, this could result in even more of our citizens leaving for abroad, particularly to Western Europe, where they can find work. This, in turn, would contribute to a rapid change in the ethnic composition of Ukraine's population. Therefore, I am skeptical about the idea of mass importing migrants into our country, as it could lead to its internal disintegration. Especially since we will emerge from the war weakened. Additionally, the origins, ethnic, and religious affiliations of these migrants remain open questions," says the demographer.

Moreover, in his opinion, if this issue is viewed solely from the perspective of the labor market, no one is considering the necessary expenses. Bringing in 3–4 million people will affect not only the labor market but also the housing market, leading to increased rental prices, which will negatively impact Ukrainian citizens.

"If these migrants bring their families, the state will be forced to provide them with social support. Thus, we cannot pay our citizens the entitled amounts upon the birth of a child, but we are ready to financially support foreigners. Furthermore, migrants will demand a certain level of social security: the burden on law enforcement, education, and medical systems will increase.

Therefore, this issue needs to be considered comprehensively, not only from the perspective of labor market needs but also taking into