Ukraine is losing children: what drives the mass emigration of minors under 18 years old?

Member of the "Dovira" parliamentary group, Sergey Velymozhny, stated that the rate at which the younger generation is leaving Ukraine has significantly increased. This particularly concerns displaced persons. Minister of Education and Science, Oksen Lisovoy, confirmed that many 10th and 11th graders, especially boys, are going abroad.

"We encourage them (students, — ed.) to stay in Ukraine through various means. However, the key thing we, as the Ministry of Education, must offer our citizens is quality vocational, professional, and higher education," the minister said.

According to him, after the war ends, there will be a phase of recovery that will require a substantial amount of resources, including human resources.

Students are leaving Ukraine more frequently: reasons

Co-chair of the NGO "Batyky SOS," Elena Parfenova stated that there is indeed a trend of students leaving for abroad.

She noted that parents are deciding to send their children abroad for education after the 11th grade. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia are the primary options, as these locations allow mothers to visit more easily and supervise their children in another country.

Parfenova believes that a child with a foreign diploma has more opportunities for employment, particularly abroad. European education adheres to specific standards that are acceptable to employers in the EU.

"Mainly, parents send their children to get an education abroad not with the intention of returning to Ukraine," she pointed out.

Sociologist Vladimir Paniotto believes that if students in 10th and 11th grades are indeed leaving the country more often, it could be due to several reasons. In particular, it is now easier to do so, there are more problems in Ukraine, and the mobilization age may be lowered.

Will Ukraine be left without a young generation?

The sociologist thinks that this is not a widespread phenomenon, and therefore Ukraine will not be left without a generation under 18.

"When the war ends, and if there are normal conditions, EU accession, support from other countries, etc., these discrepancies will balance out," he noted.

He stated that in such a case, this phenomenon will not increase and will not significantly affect the future.

Sociologist from the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Ptukha of the NAS of Ukraine, Lyudmila Slyusar, believes that Ukraine will not be without a generation under 18. However, this is a demographic crisis that will deepen and depend on when the war ends and what the situation in the country will be like.

In her opinion, the level of economic development and prosperity in Ukraine would rise if hostilities ceased, Kyiv received security guarantees, and investments appeared. As a result, the younger generation could return, but for now, such prospects are "still in the fog."

The co-chair of the NGO "Batyky SOS" hopes that she will not have to debate what will happen to Ukraine if it is left without a young generation. However, from a demographic perspective, the impact on the economy would be dire.

"We will have more people to support, including pension provisions. This will place a significant burden on the working population that remains in Ukraine, the younger generation. In other words, the tax burden on us will increase because we will have to support a larger number of people. And I don’t know how we will get out of all this if we do not stop children from leaving Ukraine," Parfenova stated.

Ukraine will face a shortage of about 200,000 workers annually

President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, Vasily Voskoboynik, believes that starting in 2025, between 500,000 to 600,000 Ukrainians will leave the labor market due to death or retirement. During the same period, only 300,000 to 400,000 people will enter the labor market.

Deputy Sergey Velymozhny noted that after the war ends, there will be a phase of recovery and development for the country that requires significant investments, not only financially but also in human resources. Meanwhile, Ukraine is already experiencing a disaster in the labor market.

"The number of vacancies is increasing, while the number of qualified workers is decreasing. But we understand that in the future, the situation will not improve, and therefore one of the few options is to encourage our youth to stay here," he explained.

How to stop the growing labor shortage and encourage students to stay in Ukraine

Vasily Voskoboynik emphasized that this process could be described as a catastrophe. To change the situation, victory in the war and a clear, well-thought-out mobilization program are necessary.

"When it is said that guys under 25 will not be mobilized, but there are statements about the possibility of drafting 20-year-olds, parents, without a clear vision for their children's future, will try to take them out of Ukraine," he explained.

The expert added that the Ministry of Education should develop a program to engage with youth. Children go abroad not only for education—parents seek to provide them with a more stable and predictable future than what is currently available in Ukraine.

"Steps need to be taken now. Even if the war ends tomorrow, the question arises: will the living conditions in the country change? Will taxes continue to rise? Will there be uncertainty about the economic future? These issues need to be addressed today. One example of real action is the demographic strategy approved on September 30," Voskoboynik concluded.

He emphasized that the demographic strategy is an important step towards shaping the vision of Ukraine's future.

According to Sergey Velymozhny, it is essential to guarantee the rule of law and the legality of actions for the youth. Employers must be interested not only in recruiting personnel but also in nurturing such employees, meaning they should hire progressive and talented youth. Moreover, the housing issue is crucial.

"We need to ensure that people do not leave, and therefore we must provide all means for their assimilation in new places of residence, create jobs with decent pay and other opportunities," the deputy noted.

Sociologist Paniotto stated that he does not believe it is currently possible to encourage students to stay in Ukraine rather than go abroad. In particular, when Poland joined the EU, migration became easier, leading to a high level of migration from Poland to other European countries. For Ukrainians, moving to Europe is also now easier, and under the conditions of war, Ukraine has little control over this.

He mentioned that such conditions could be created after the end of hostilities to ensure that students continue their education in Ukraine. It is also possible to stimulate the education of those who have left to maintain their connection with Ukraine. This involves having them study at Ukrainian universities regardless.

Previously, the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research, Ella Libanova, stated that lowering the mobilization age could affect the demographic situation in Ukraine. She opposes drafting into the military at the age of 18.