Budanov is not Gordon: Will the grim forecasts for Putin by the head of military intelligence come true by 2025?

In response to the telethon host's question about what Ukrainians should expect in 2025, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, remarked: "A year ago, I was asked a similar question, and I honestly said that, unfortunately, 2024 will be very difficult. 2025 will definitely be better. There are objective factors for this, and I hope that we will see many good events that will ultimately bring us what we have all been waiting for."

According to the head of GUR, Russia is capable of continuing the war, but if it "doesn't wake up by mid-2025," it will "have to make very difficult decisions" related to its financial and economic systems. "Are they ready for this? Perhaps they are. Do they want this? I can say with a hundred percent certainty that no. Therefore, they will do everything to prevent this," Kyrylo Budanov summed up.

What "black swans" does Budanov predict for Russia this year

Kyrylo Budanov, the expert notes, is an advocate of the idea that any military campaign has certain cycles, and "judging by his forecast, Russia has fewer and fewer diverse resources to continue its offensive campaign."

"Be that as it may, our enemy is clever, and Nabiullina (the head of the Central Bank of Russia) is currently managing risks, although the further we go, the more difficult it becomes for her. Therefore, the military factor, plus the economic factor, are components of Budanov's forecast."

The third important point, notes Maxim Dzhigun, is the international political climate, particularly the return of Donald Trump to the White House. "Trump's desire to increase oil production and crash the price of black gold is undoubtedly a bad signal for Moscow. But it should be noted that Budanov possesses classified information and it is quite possible that the head of GUR can already predict the arrival in Russia of some black, green, or any other swans," the political analyst observes.

Expressing the belief that Russia has always demonstrated rhetoric corresponding to the situation on the battlefield, the political analyst emphasized: "If we recall the autumn of 2022, when Ukrainian forces reclaimed almost all of the Kharkiv region and the right bank of the Kherson region, the rhetoric of Patrushev, Peskov, Lavrov, and even Putin himself was very different from now. They were saying, let's meet, look for ways to resolve the situation and common ground. As of today, the situation is radically different. There are thousands of square kilometers of destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure, human losses, occupied territories... All of this shapes the agenda and compels the Russians to pressure."

Meanwhile, as the situation changes, primarily due to the military and economic exhaustion of Russia, the expert is confident that the tone of the Kremlin will also change: "In other words, Moscow's rhetoric is a dynamic entity that can change rapidly depending on the state of affairs. And our task is to make their situation as bad as possible."

What irreversible problems for Russia is the head of GUR discussing

In the event of a collapse of the Russian economy, the political analyst emphasizes, a chain reaction will occur: "Without a doubt, the economic situation will affect Putin's regime, because when Russians have empty refrigerators and the wind is blowing in their pockets, certain processes begin. These are not necessarily revolutions or mass riots, etc., but it is certainly about distrust in the regime. Alongside this problem, Putin will face the question of where to get money for the war? Ultimately, Putin may throw himself into a final battle, and that too would be his mistake. In the basket of Putin's problems, we can also add the Americans' plans under Trump to crash oil prices. How quickly this will happen is hard to say, but the Syrian case clearly demonstrated that even 11 days is quite enough for a regime that seemed incredibly strong to collapse. And Putin is increasingly losing respect as a strong leader, and this trend will only strengthen."

"In any case, Budanov is not Gordon, just to scare people with some words and ultimately sit by the broken trough with a sense of fulfilled duty. Budanov represents the pinnacle of comprehensive analysis of the situation in the Russian Federation, so I believe that truly positive trends for us in 2025 are quite possible," concludes Oleg Lesnoy.

Meanwhile, the Moscow correspondent for the British television channel Sky News, Ivor Bennett, expressed the belief that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end in 2025. At the same time, he specifically emphasized that hostilities may cease, while the conflict will be frozen. "The Kremlin hopes to conclude negotiations by May 9, when the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany will be celebrated. The aim will be a double celebration," notes Bennett. In his opinion, whatever the outcome, "Russia will present it as a victory."

The Financial Times also predicts the end of the war in 2025. However, the newspaper specifically emphasizes that to achieve peace, newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump will need to threaten Russia with harsher sanctions on one hand, while on the other hand, strengthening American support for Kyiv, "to convince Moscow to seriously engage in negotiations." At the same time, it is noted that U.S. allies will convince Trump not to remove Ukraine's NATO membership from the agenda.