Euronews:
- Central Asia, endowed with oil, gas, strategic minerals, and serving as a crossroads of Eurasia, is a zone of geopolitical interest for Russia, China, and the West. How might the elections in the United States alter or amplify U.S. influence in the region?
Janusz Bugajski:
- First of all, American and Western diplomatic language does not recognize the term “zone of geopolitical interests” or at least feels uncomfortable with it. The then-President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, referred to a zone of state interests for Russia after the 2008 Russo-Georgian War.
Under the Biden administration, the volume of American aid to Central Asia has significantly decreased, as the U.S. withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and redirected aid to Ukraine. President-elect Donald D. Trump acknowledges the importance of the region's natural resources and is interested in containing China and possibly Russia. It is in the strategic interests of the U.S. and the EU to develop deeper ties with the region, including investments, trade, transportation links, and security cooperation.
Euronews:
- What has been the main dynamic of relations between Russia and Central Asia since 1991? Have these relations always been contentious or cooperative, and what has defined them?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Relations among the former Soviet republics during the early years of Yeltsin’s presidency were relatively cordial. Russia was focused on its internal issues, allowing Central Asian countries to seize the opportunity to strengthen their independence. The first President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, played a key role in this nation-building process as the leader of the largest country in the region by territory and GDP, sharing the longest border with Russia.
Unlike the three Baltic states, the Central Asian countries did not have recent periods of nation-building.
Unlike the three Baltic states, Central Asian countries did not have recent periods of nation-building. They needed to undertake three simultaneous transformations: political, economic, and international. This involved creating independent political institutions free from centralized Moscow control, implementing economic reforms aimed at building a market economy and dismantling the failed communist model of centralized planning, as well as engaging in international relations as independent states, no longer dependent on Kremlin decisions. Kazakhstan was a leader in all three processes.
Euronews:
- What legal and diplomatic mechanisms connect Russia with Central Asia? Can this be attributed solely to the post-Soviet colonial and cultural legacy, or is it something else?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Following centuries of expansion, by the end of the 19th century, the Tsarist Empire had conquered all of Central Asia. The legacy of this repressive colonial policy persists today, while a new generation of Kazakhs, Uzbeks, and other peoples is rediscovering their national identity and history. The role of national leaders such as Nazarbayev and Karimov in this national renaissance is still insufficiently recognized. Contrary to Moscow's expectations, no Central Asian state openly supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the war itself deepened Kazakhstan's reassessment of the Soviet era as a time of imperial oppression.
The leaders of Central Asian countries fully understand that Russia remains one of the dominant powers in Eurasia and is supported by China.
At the same time, the leaders of Central Asian countries are well aware that Russia remains one of the dominant powers in Eurasia and is backed by China, another great power. Much of their trade still occurs with Moscow. They cannot alienate Russia through any hostile actions. Instead, they must pursue a policy of balance among Russia, China, and the West to maintain their maneuvering space. Kazakhstan has been at the forefront of this movement for decades, aiming to protect the young state and ensure economic development.
Euronews:
- Well, but now the balance is “unbalanced” due to the war in Ukraine... How is Russia trying to maintain its influence over Central Asian states?
Janusz Bugajski:
- The war against Ukraine has significantly weakened Russia in terms of its military potential and financial resources. Meanwhile, Moscow may resort to political, informational, and financial tools to attempt to replace governments in Central Asian countries that are deemed too independent or pro-Western, akin to Georgia or Moldova. The most effective way for Central Asian states to defend against such a scenario consists of three components.
First, multivector foreign policy, which Nazarbayev has pursued since Kazakhstan gained independence, provides greater influence on the international stage. Second, enhanced regional integration will help reduce economic dependence on Russia or China. Third, closer economic and trade ties with Europe and the U.S. will encourage the transatlantic community to be more interested in the security and independence of Central Asia. Connections with the Pacific region, including Japan and Korea, are also important.
Central Asian countries cannot boast a NATO nuclear umbrella for their security. Instead, they can better protect their national interests through a multivector policy.
Central Asian countries cannot boast a NATO nuclear umbrella for their security. Instead, they can better protect their national interests through a multivector policy. This involves refraining from close cooperation with any single state and engaging with numerous international organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Turkic Council (TC), and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
Notably, Kazakhstan has just announced its refusal to join BRICS.
In such formats, constructive initiatives can be implemented to strengthen Central Asia by resolving any border issues and creating a united front against terrorism, developing cultural cooperation, and protecting the environment. Kazakhstan has also invested in the “Nurly Zhol” infrastructure development program.
Euronews:
- Kazakhstan, in particular, is trying to present itself as a new diplomatic center, a “steppe Switzerland,” especially notable are its mediation efforts in the Syrian conflict. Can Central Asia play any role in ending the war in Ukraine? And can it do so to its own benefit?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Just as Austria, Finland, and Switzerland played their roles in reducing tensions during the Cold War, today’s global antagonists could meet on neutral territory in Kazakhstan, as was done in Vienna, Helsinki, Geneva, and Lausanne in the last century. While Central Asian states may not be able to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, they could serve as a neutral platform for discussing and resolving issues related to the war, such as prisoner exchanges, protecting civilian infrastructure, or ensuring grain exports through the Black Sea. Coordination of actions in nuclear safety and environmental protection worldwide is also significant, and Kazakhstan, in particular, aims to provide a venue for international cooperation.
Euronews:
- What would you advise Central Asian countries to do to avoid becoming the next victim of Russia? Does China have a role in this?
Janusz Bugajski:
- The key to strengthening independence and preventing entanglement in competing blocs in a polarized world is the simultaneous pursuit of greater regional integration and engagement on the international level by Central Asian states. This will enhance their economic power, investment potential, security, and international authority. A more consolidated and unified region will be better able to protect itself from negative foreign influence.
A more consolidated and unified region will be better able to protect itself from negative foreign influence.
Since the collapse of the USSR, attempts at regional integration have been made, but they have had limited impact. In 1994, President Nazarbayev initiated an agreement to create a Central Asian Union with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, initially focusing on economic cooperation. This plan was abandoned due to ongoing rivalries among some states, disputes over scarce water resources, competition for foreign investment, and growing attempts by Beijing and Moscow to dominate the region through a “divide and rule” strategy.
Russian programs for the Eurasian Economic Union and China’s Belt and Road Initiative were launched to undermine independent and autonomous regional initiatives in Central Asia. In 2007, Nazarbayev proposed the creation of a Central Asian Economic Union aimed at the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people