"20-30 kilometers per day": Russian Armed Forces could seize Dnipro or Kharkiv, says officer (video).

The situation on the front is critical, and some major cities in Ukraine may face occupation in 2025. This was stated by former commander of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Anatoly "Kupol" Kozel, in an interview with Ukrainian Witness published on January 4.

He confirmed that Avdiivka needed to be fortified back in 2022. Now, according to the military official, Dnipro and the Dnipropetrovsk region need to be fortified, and Kherson must be prepared for a defensive operation.

"And we need to stop deceiving ourselves. There is total deception at all levels," emphasized "Kupol".

He assured that the Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is receiving information that is distorted by up to 100%. Kozel reported that the situation at the front is "very critical" due to a lack of personnel, the potential for a front collapse, and possible strategic miscalculations. He noted that at this moment the front has "crumbled" only tactically, with approximately "30% of the front having gaps in defense".

"If they take Kherson, they will have a foothold on the right bank. Zaporizhzhia faces a similar situation," warned the lieutenant colonel.

According to his forecast, in 2025, the Russian Armed Forces will continue their offensive in the Donetsk direction. If they capture Pokrovsk, they will directly reach the Dnipropetrovsk region.

"All key routes are there, all the strategy. They will seize these routes, and then — Dnipro will be next. Dnipro needs to be prepared just like Berlin was in '45 or Moscow in '41. The same goes for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia," noted the serviceman.

He stressed that as of now, Ukraine is losing on all fronts. In the opinion of the former brigade commander, if nothing changes, at best there will be a tactical loss of territories, and at worst — an operational loss, meaning "half of the region". He explained that tactical loss refers to 20 kilometers, operational to 100 kilometers, and strategic to 500 kilometers.

"This means we will start losing territory not by 2-3 kilometers, but by 20-30 kilometers. This will already allow the enemy to access operational spaces. In one day," emphasized "Kupol".

According to him, this is a bad scenario, but "it is also possible".

"If everything continues to move as it is now, we won’t be losing 300 meters. We will start with 5 kilometers, and then we will lose 20," explained the military.

He assessed the reality of the threat of occupation for Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Kharkiv as "50-50". In the opinion of the lieutenant colonel, at the moment the enemy has enough resources to capture a major city. So far, Russia has not touched the layers of the population whose mobilization could lead to unrest, but it does have reserves.

Kozel stated that the occupiers are using flanking encirclement tactics — this is how Avdiivka and Soledar fell. The actions of enemy forces are therefore anticipated. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted their counteroffensive "head-on", which is why Ukraine used its reserves for the future and went "all-in".

The military noted that since 2022, the general staff "has squandered the best elite combat potential of motivated, patriotic Ukrainians who joined the army." This live force has been lost in frontal assaults, and the potential is not infinite. According to him, earlier they expected 5 million, but in reality, it was about 1-1.5 million, which was exhausted by the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

"And we have a diversified personnel who surrender and flee to the SZO. The problems in the SZO are approximately — 100, 150, 200 thousand. These are approximate numbers (...) This is about 20-30 brigades," emphasized "Kupol".

He added that to conduct demobilization, soldiers on the front need replacements. However, an "adequate rotation system" is absent in Ukraine.

It is worth noting that a Forbes journalist reported that one of the main goals of the Russian Armed Forces now is the occupation of Pokrovsk. At the same time, one of Ukraine's most important missions is to protect the city. David Ex suggested that the troops in this direction will be reinforced by fighters from the 155th mechanized brigade, which is disintegrating due to problems with the SZO.

Military expert Vladislav Seleznev warned that Russian occupiers are creating favorable conditions for seizing the entire Donetsk region. He described the enemy's strategic plan as obvious and outlined the next steps of the RF.