The urgency of the suddenly arisen situation was reflected in the unplanned visit of the President of Syria to Moscow.
Initial assessments indicate that Israel is the real victor of the 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon, announced on Tuesday.
In exchange for agreeing to the ceasefire, Israel secured a commitment from several leading European powers (including France) to refrain from issuing an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court. This means that the vast majority of Western European governments will not be bound by the court's decision.
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During preliminary negotiations, the Lebanese government made France's participation in the settlement a prerequisite, which provided Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu with a uniquely advantageous position.
Previously, Paris had agreed to the court's ruling and announced that it would comply with it regarding Netanyahu. However, just hours before the ceasefire agreement was finalized, it withdrew this intention, as it was clearly interested in participating in the Lebanese settlement. But this required Israel's consent.
Historical Roots
This turn of events also has historical roots, as France exercised control (mandate) over Syria, which included Lebanon, during the interwar period when Lebanon did not exist as a state. Lebanon was not independent from France until 1943, and many in the Arab world continue to question its sovereignty. Various Palestinian factions agree that "the state of Lebanon does not exist," which is why they settled in the country after 1972, when they were expelled from Jordan.
France's economic, military, and cultural role has not diminished since then, and the devastated Beirut is still often referred to as the Paris of the Middle East. French remains the second (unofficial) language in the country. French investment, financial, and military interests are also significant and will remain so in the future, as peacekeeping responsibilities will fall on the UN armed forces, with the UNIFIL (France delegating 10% of the combined forces, making it the second strongest participant after Italy).
Strengthening Israel's Position
The decision to abstain from participating in the international arrest parade is a significant political issue and a matter of prestige for Israel, as this resolution seriously limited its diplomatic maneuvering space for several weeks. It also weakened the position of the ICC's chief prosecutor, who had been a thorn in Israel's side. The Italian newspaper La Stampa describes the ceasefire as "a gift to Netanyahu." This view is supported by the fact that in the meantime, Joe Biden unthawed a military package for Israel worth $680 million.
RelatedAnother advantage for Israel is that it can refocus its military forces on Gaza and accelerate the peace process in the region, which the current and future US administration hopes for and expects.
Major operations in this area had been suspended for some time, but the conflict, which has been ongoing for the second year, continues to exert severe pressure on the local civilian population. Israel now has more resources, attention, and time to contribute to alleviating the dire humanitarian situation.
At the same time, the terrorist organization Hamas, which previously governed Gaza, still holds a trump card in the form of approximately 41 Israeli and American hostages, and it can be confidently stated that without them (or their remains on the ground), Israel will not leave the sector.
A New Conflict Zone Created Nearby in 24 Hours
According to intelligence obtained from open sources, rebel forces fighting against the Damascus regime have gained significant momentum in the last 24 hours. It is difficult to identify the leading force in this loose alliance of several factions, but it is believed to be the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have been opposing the Syrian regime and Russian interventionists since 2014.
Another major rebel force is the group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham."
Yesterday, the rebels cut off a key highway between Damascus and Aleppo, marking a significant and unexpected tactical success.
The importance of Aleppo is underscored by the fact that during the Syrian civil war, Assad's army lost control of the historic city and was only able to regain it thanks to continuous airstrikes from the Russian army, which intervened in the conflict (the bombings were led by General Sergey Surovikin, who earned the dubious nickname "the Butcher of Damascus" and later participated in the Prigozhin uprising). The further fate of the general remains unknown).
According to intelligence, the reason for the sudden surge in hostilities is that in the previous weeks, Israel had supplied the rebels with weapons confiscated from "Hezbollah," including missiles, anti-tank weapons, artillery batteries, and even anti-aircraft systems.
In some villages along the way, the rebels have already removed portraits of Syrian state leader Bashar al-Assad.
The Syrian regime has been a traditional enemy of Israel since 1948, with which it has fought several wars, and is the only one that has not been involved in a prolonged peace negotiation process. Damascus is considered Iran's most loyal partner in the region, primarily for religious, but also for strategic reasons, not only tolerating but benefiting from the presence of Tehran's proxy groups and allowing Iranian weapons to flow into Lebanon to "Hezbollah."
These forces have also been used by the Damascus family regime to protect its extensive drug operations.
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Based on the news available so far, it is quite possible that these armed forces were the ones that opposed him on Wednesday in the Aleppo area. This is also a two-way street; if weapons can be imported, they can also be sent back.