Informer’s forecast: Will there be peace in 2025?

The belief that Trump can somehow "solve" the war and deal with Putin likely stems from a Soviet mindset. This notion implies that the war was initiated by the U.S., as it benefits the American military-industrial complex. This is precisely what Russian propaganda promotes. In other words, Americans started it, and they can also end it – a subconscious conclusion. It's like a magic trick: you’re looking in the wrong direction. Everyone is focused on Trump, while the attention should be on the Kremlin.

No predictions regarding the end of the war have come true

Even Dmitry Gordon fell for the tricks of Kremlin illusionists. He predicted the war would end on December 30. However, the next day he authoritatively and convincingly explained why his previous prediction had no chance of coming true.

Interestingly, no predictions have materialized since the war began due to Kremlin magic. Recall:

• War lasting two to three weeks, at most five: Arrestovych, April 2022.
• War will end by the end of 2022: astrologer Vlad Ross, May 2022.
• War will subside in winter 2023, and the final phase of the conflict will begin in spring: head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov, September 2022.
• War could end in 2023 - President Volodymyr Zelensky, August 2023, when the Ukrainian counteroffensive had not yet been deemed completely unsuccessful.
• War will conclude in 2024 – International Monetary Fund in its baseline scenario, June 2023.

Given this background, making new predictions seems unwise. However, Informator has its own forecast: according to it, the war is indeed expected to conclude by 2025.

The magic of the Kremlin lies in its constant deceit

The Kremlin's magic lies in the fact that they never speak the truth. For example, just days before the war, Putin's spokesperson Peskov claimed that Russia would never be the aggressor. And immediately after, Russia attacked us. Now Putin says he is ready for negotiations, which means he is lying. But let’s present his quote in full.

“We are ready to engage in dialogue without preconditions. But based on what we agreed upon during the negotiation process in Istanbul. And taking into account the realities on the ground today. These theses were presented by the Russian Federation, including in my June address to the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Everything is stated there; there is no need to repeat,” said the Russian government during a "direct line" with its subjects.

Why do we cite this quote? Because we understand that Putin is lying. But where exactly?

Everyone believes that Putin is lying when he claims to be ready for peace negotiations. President Zelensky specifically states this.

However, it is more likely that he is lying about the conditions. Specifically, where he mentions “the June address to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”

Some signs indicate that Russia is indeed ready for negotiations:

• Sanctions and market losses have a cumulative effect on the Russian economy: meaning the time has come when they will be fully felt. This is stated by Russian economic experts themselves. They refer to figures such as the record-high key rate of the Central Bank of Russia (20%, which is serious because this rate is what the Central Bank uses to lend to Russian commercial banks), the record-low ruble exchange rate against the dollar at the end of the year, and the record rise in consumer prices (even according to Rosstat, which lies just as much as the Kremlin).
• But that's just the tip of the iceberg! The worst challenge for Russia, where 25% of GDP comes from energy exports, is the forecast for significant drops in oil prices in 2025. This could be provoked by Trump if he feels offended by Putin. Thus, oil price regulation is a topic for negotiations with Russia. The gas station country critically depends on those prices.
• There is also a military aspect. Yes, Russia still has weapons and resources. It has tactical successes in Donbas and can hope to maintain the initiative. However, despite the poor state of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and supply issues from Western allies, even the Russians do not expect a significant breakthrough. They understand that prolonging the war will deepen the problems in Russia. Hence, there is a reason to negotiate peace.
• Finally, Russia has already begun preparing public opinion for peace negotiations. In November, with the participation of Putin's administration, seminars for local authorities on ending the war commenced. “The future outcomes of the SVO should be perceived in society as a victory,” they emphasized at those seminars. This was reported by the Russian publication Kommersant.

Before peace negotiations, Ukraine is making risky decisions

And what about Ukraine? Is it ready for peace negotiations?

Probably so. Ukraine likely started seriously preparing for peace negotiations even before Trump’s victory. Specifically, on August 6 of this year, when it began military actions in Kursk.

What is happening in Kursk is, in fact, a miracle. Firstly, the Russian army has not achieved success there despite all efforts. Secondly, the real miracle is that the Ukrainian side has never clearly explained what exactly the Armed Forces are doing there.

However, considering the subsequent events, it is clear that Kursk is needed solely for bargaining during peace negotiations. Putin demands the return of Zaporizhzhia (these are his June theses) – Zelensky offers to exchange Zaporizhzhia for Sudzha.

Of course, these are nuances. The most important thing is not how the bargaining will take place, but the very logic of the process. From this perspective, it is worth examining the conflict surrounding the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.

It is now said that this decision by Zelensky is very risky. Putin may strike at the Ukrainian gas transportation system. This means Ukrainians could be left without electricity and heating. However, it seems that those at Bankova believe that Putin will not strike because it is in his interest to preserve this infrastructure. And Ukraine could propose the restoration of gas transit during negotiations.

Since the topic of energy resources is extremely vulnerable for the Russian economy, Zelensky has reasons to take risks. Interestingly, the refusal to negotiate on transit also took place in August – the same month when the offensive in Kursk began. Is this a coincidence?

Thus, Ukraine is also preparing for peace negotiations. Zelensky has even repeatedly acknowledged this.

Conclusion: negotiations in 2025 should at least begin. Perhaps some decisions will even be made. This is because there is interest from all sides.

It is clear that these negotiations will not be too favorable for Ukraine. However, Informator has previously analyzed the so-called Istanbul agreements. And it has a separate forecast. Regardless of how the next negotiations with Russia unfold, they certainly will not be worse than those agreements. No matter how they are labeled by Russia's supporters. Because the Istanbul agreements were a complete capitulation.