After the war, power in Ukraine will shift to the military, according to a forecast by Informator.

Currently, everyone is anticipating peace negotiations, which should be followed by elections. There are differing opinions regarding the outcomes of these potential elections. However, historical experience suggests that after the war, power in Ukraine will likely rest in the hands of the military. This could pose a real test for democracy. The information source explored the validity of these statements.

The military already knows about their victory in the upcoming elections

Andriy Biletsky, commander of the Third Assault Brigade, gave a detailed interview to Natalia Mosiychuk, which could be seen as a launchpad for his electoral campaign. Biletsky is an experienced player in Ukrainian politics, having been involved with organizations such as the All-Ukrainian Union "Tryzub" and "Patriot of Ukraine." In 2014, Biletsky founded and commanded the "Azov" battalion. The Third Assault Brigade is essentially a successor of Azov.

In Biletsky's opinion, the actions of the military during the most difficult times in Ukraine's history are the main criteria for evaluating future politicians:

“Everyone will say on Maidan, off Maidan: ‘I am ready to do anything for the country.’ A soldier is someone who has left their family, gets injured, suffers the cold like a dog, lacks sleep, risks their life every day, and carries others along. They have proven that these are not just empty words,” Biletsky believes.

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Biletsky is not an advocate of European values. He is also not a supporter of democracy, and many Ukrainians believe he may be right at this moment.

Polls do not measure the opinion of an important category of citizens

Polls conducted in 2024 indicated that the most likely winner of the presidential elections would be former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. However, there will likely be enough positions in power for a number of popular figures from the Armed Forces. Therefore, Biletsky makes statements about this not without reason.

Despite the collective opinion of sociologists regarding Valerii Zaluzhnyi's rating, there were quite different data regarding specific figures and comparisons in 2024. For example:

• According to SOCIS, Valerii Zaluzhnyi would receive 41.4% of the votes, while Volodymyr Zelensky would only receive 23.7%;
• According to KMIS, both Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi would get about 27% in the first round of potential elections.

Both sociological institutions - SOCIS and KMIS - enjoy considerable trust. Thus, this is not a distortion but rather an error in measuring public opinion, which can be explained by various objective reasons.

This is how Volodymyr Koval, who was recently mobilized into the Armed Forces, explains this error. Koval runs his own blog on Facebook, which is rapidly gaining popularity.

In Koval's view, the opinions of servicemen are not taken into account by sociologists. This is despite the fact that this opinion is characterized by notable unanimity.

"It seems to me that the Ukrainian soldier does not really like the president. It’s hard to convey in words; you need to feel it in this atmosphere," Koval writes. "The average mobilized soldier (I won't speak for the officers and volunteers) hates the Ukrainian president and the entire bureaucratic class simply because of what is happening here."

Soldiers will choose their general as president, just like in the USA

This phenomenon has simple historical explanations. Recently, Radio Liberty published a conversation with one of the most influential Western analysts on post-Soviet space, Dr. Andrew Michta, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council.

Michta provides an interesting analogy: Dwight Eisenhower's victory in the presidential elections in the USA after World War II.

“President Eisenhower was actually elected by his former soldiers, and those soldiers were ordinary citizens, as there was no professional army at that time. They were children of the Great Depression, tough guys who worked on farms and in factories. Many of them were underweight because they lived in very harsh conditions,” the expert points out.

We can extend his thought to understand whether military power will be a test for democracy. Analyzing Eisenhower's actions as president, it seems that, on the contrary, these were times of achievement for democracy, not tests.

Eisenhower's era as an analogy for post-war Ukraine

Indeed, the Eisenhower era is associated with the beginning of the Cold War. However, during this time, positive changes predominantly occurred:

1. McCarthyism was abolished, meaning the persecution of Americans suspected of sympathizing with communist ideology and the USSR. Eisenhower personally ended the activities of the committee investigating anti-American activities led by Senator McCarthy (though during Eisenhower's presidency, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg were convicted and executed on suspicion of espionage on behalf of the USSR).
2. The Korean War was ended during Eisenhower's term.
3. Eisenhower made significant strides to end racial segregation in the USA: first in the army, then in the southern states.
4. The rapid economic growth of the 1950s occurred during Eisenhower's presidency.
5. Finally, during his administration, the USA actively built highways. Some of these remain in good condition today and require little reconstruction.

Peace negotiations are still in question

These are not the only analogies. The same happened in France, where a general, de Gaulle, became president after the war - for the same reasons indicated by Andrew Michta. Thus, the prospect of military power following the war is rather a positive one.

However, the anticipated peace in 2025 may not be established. As the date of Trump’s inauguration approaches, the main “peacemaker,” more experts are leaning towards this thought. They believe that Russia will not want to stop, as it currently has the upper hand on the battlefield.

Specifically, on January 6, French President Macron shared his own prediction. In his opinion, we should not expect a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Thus, elections are still in question. As is the military's victory in these elections.