Following the halt of transit, Russia may target the gas transportation system, according to Bloomberg.

At a turning point set to occur at the beginning of next year for Ukraine's gas transportation system, when the Ukrainian-Russian gas transit contract expires, Ukraine must prioritize the protection of its gas pipeline network. New threats arise from the absence of Russian gas in the system. Consequently, Russia may attempt to destroy the gas transportation system, similar to its efforts against other energy facilities in Ukraine.

One of the largest gas transportation networks in the world, spanning over 38,000 kilometers, has avoided attacks over the past three years due to the transit of Russian gas. As noted by Bloomberg, Russia may now adopt a new strategy aimed at completely paralyzing Ukraine's gas transportation infrastructure and creating an energy crisis.

"One of the largest gas transportation systems in the world has not suffered from shelling or sabotage in the past three years because it was transporting Russian gas," the publication states.

If gas transit were to cease, the system could become a target for missile strikes, akin to the attacks on gas storage facilities and power sources. The authors believe this would also lead to technical challenges, making it difficult to heat homes across Ukraine during winter.

Currently, Ukraine has announced that it will not extend the gas contract with Russia. However, Slovakia is actively advocating for the continuation of transit. Bloomberg reports that this option would be advantageous for Russia, as it would allow them to remain in the EU market. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated on Friday that negotiations are ongoing, and a last-minute agreement cannot be entirely ruled out.

Bloomberg also mentions that if gas transit through Ukraine were to stop, Russian exports to Europe could nearly halve — dropping to 16 billion cubic meters. Moscow could lose approximately $5.3 billion in annual revenue (before export duties).

Russia has already attacked gas transportation system facilities

During a massive attack on April 27, 2024, the western part of the gas transportation system in Ukraine was hit. At that time, occupiers also targeted gas infrastructure facilities of "Naftogaz," which has occurred before.

Additionally, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has publicly discussed potential risks to the gas transportation system. He believes that the cessation of transit would completely paralyze the gas transportation system. He proposed contracting Azerbaijani companies, which could also serve as gas transit providers to Europe. Negotiations on this matter are ongoing.