North Korea is set to lose numerous military personnel fighting alongside Russia, according to an analysis by ISW.

The Russian army is focused on rapidly recruiting new soldiers rather than providing them with quality training. This ultimately results in significant losses among personnel. This tactic is also applied to North Korean troops, which greatly affects their combat effectiveness.

According to information from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the National Intelligence Service of South Korea reports that North Korean military personnel already in Russia are undergoing training alongside Russian marines and paratroopers and have participated in combat operations.

Which Russian units are North Korean military involved in?

In October, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the 11th Airborne Brigade of Russia is forming a special "Unique Buryat Battalion," primarily staffed by soldiers from North Korea to engage in combat in the Kursk region.

According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there is a possibility that the Eastern Military District of Russia has a mandate to prepare and integrate North Korean forces. ISW also notes that North Korean soldiers are training alongside various motorized rifle units within this district, including the Pacific Fleet of Russia and two marine brigades — the 155th and the 40th.

The report indicates that the 11th and 83rd Airborne Brigades of Russia, although not directly subordinate to the Eastern Military District, are part of its structure. This supports the assumption that North Korean troops are likely training near the border with North Korea.

According to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence, North Korean forces may be preparing for combat alongside Russian marine and airborne units, especially in the Kursk region. ISW also mentions that Russian paratroopers frequently participate in joint military exercises with other countries, such as Belarus and Serbia, suggesting that they may also be training North Korean soldiers.

Outdated training methods for soldiers

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that North Korea's ability to adapt to the experience of joint combat operations with Russia may significantly deteriorate due to the use of outdated training methods. This could occur if Russian command employs North Korean forces in assault operations alongside severely depleted Russian infantry units, which is already standard practice for most Russian military units.

The Institute notes that the qualitative differences between various Russian units, which existed before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, are becoming less significant due to the changing nature of warfare by Russia. Formations that were once considered elite, such as airborne troops or marines, are now effectively performing the role of regular motorized rifle units, as their numbers have been reduced and combat tactics have been reduced to frontal infantry attacks, without the use of unique tactical approaches.

Russian military losses have forced the command to accelerate the recruitment of new soldiers and fill vacancies in new units, which has impacted the quality of their training. ISW believes that this practice will extend to North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russians and will have a negative impact on them. North Korean troops training in airborne or marine units are likely to be used in battles just like Russian soldiers — as regular infantry, which could lead to high casualties among their ranks.

Analysts believe that these losses will diminish the effectiveness and lessons learned for North Korea from participating in the war alongside Russia, rendering this experience futile.

Russia has deployed North Korean troops to Kursk, but they lack trench warfare experience

According to Western media, Russia has sent nearly 10,000 soldiers from North Korea, while Ukrainian intelligence estimates their number at no less than 12,000, including 500 officers, among them three generals. In South Korea, it is believed that there are about 11,000 North Korean troops in Russia.

Reports indicated that elite SSO troops and "combat slaves of Kim Jong Un" are being transferred to the Kursk region. However, the Wall Street Journal later reported that the troops arriving in Russia to participate in the war against Ukraine are not the best representatives of the North Korean army. Among them are young individuals around 20 years old and even teenagers. North Korean troops lack experience in trench warfare and have never left North Korea or seen combat. Ukrainian experts believe that North Korean soldiers are likely to become cannon fodder without impacting the course of the war.