Oreshnik missile: ISW questions the weapon's innovation and clarifies the purpose behind Putin's statements.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the military leadership of Russia continue to celebrate the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile, which was used to strike Dnipro on November 21. However, military analysts believe this is part of an information campaign aimed at pressuring the West and Ukraine, particularly to reduce military support for Kyiv.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts note that on November 22, Putin met with the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, representatives of the Russian defense industry, and missile developers. He described the launch of the "Oreshnik" as "successful" in response to "those trying to blackmail" Russia.

Putin claimed that the "Oreshnik" is based on advanced technologies, is not a modernization of Soviet missiles, and is already being prepared for mass production. The commander of the Russian Missile Forces, Colonel General Sergey Karakayev, emphasized that the missile is capable of hitting targets across Europe, with no analogues in the world.

American and Ukrainian media indicate that the "Oreshnik" is not fundamentally new weaponry. Official Pentagon representatives confirmed that it is a medium-range missile developed from the RS-26 "Rubezh" intercontinental missile. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh also pointed out that previous Russian attacks utilized missiles with larger warheads.

Ukrainian military intelligence suggests that "Oreshnik" is a code name for the "Kedr" missile project, developed based on the ICBM "Yars." Head of the GUR, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, noted that the development of the "Kedr" has been ongoing since 2018-2019. ISW cannot independently confirm these claims but agrees that the strike on November 21 does not demonstrate new Russian capabilities.

"Russia is benefiting from the loud statements regarding the strike on November 21 and likely hopes that increased concern over the launch of the 'Oreshnik' missile will prompt the West to reduce its support for Ukraine," the report states.

Kedr-Oreshnik: Strike with a New Russian Development on Dnipro

On November 21, Russians launched a intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro from the Astrakhan region of Russia. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated that the strike was carried out with the "new ballistic missile 'Oreshnik'."

However, on November 22, the GUR stated that Russia did not strike Dnipro with the "Oreshnik" on November 21, but rather with the "Kedr" missile system. The flight time of this Russian missile from launch in the Astrakhan region to impact in Dnipro was 15 minutes. The missile was equipped with six warheads, each armed with six submunitions.

Later on November 22, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kyrylo Budanov revealed more details about the "Kedr" missile. According to him, as of October 2024, Russia was set to produce two experimental samples of the missile from the “Kedr” missile system, one of which hit Dnipro on November 21. The intelligence officer also clarified the confusion regarding the name of the new Russian missile, stating that "Oreshnik" is the name of the research project under which it was developed, while the launch system is called "Kedr."

On November 22, Vladimir Putin announced that the "Oreshnik" is allegedly not a modernization of old systems, but rather a cutting-edge technology. The Russian leader boasted that such weaponry supposedly does not exist elsewhere in the world.

On November 23, the British publication Daily Mail reported that the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile could hit any target in Europe. It could reach key European cities in just 11-20 minutes. London could be targeted 17 minutes after launch, while Berlin, located in the east of the continent, would be attacked in less than 15 minutes.