ISW assessed the extent of Ukrainian territory captured by Russians in 2024 and provided a forecast for 2025.

Throughout 2024, Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers. This mainly consisted of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and the Kursk region. During this period, the Russian army lost 427 thousand soldiers.

This information is detailed in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts noted that the Russian military command primarily prioritized efforts to seize the remaining territory of the Donetsk region and establish a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv in 2024, but was unable to achieve these goals.

The Institute indicated that, according to estimates from Western and Ukrainian sources, Russia intended to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of 2024. However, the slow advance of Russian troops in early and mid-2024 forced the Russian military command to reassess its plans and identify the main offensive objective by the end of the year as capturing Pokrovsk.

The ISW reminded that throughout 2024, Russian forces captured four medium-sized settlements: Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove. The largest of these had a pre-war population of over 31 thousand people. However, in December, Russian successes slowed down.

"It will take Russian forces a little over two years to capture the rest of the Donetsk region at the pace of advancement seen in 2024. And even then, this is possible only if we assume that all Russian offensives will be limited to the Donetsk region and that they will be able to seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields," the ISW report states.

In contrast, the Institute for the Study of War is convinced that to realize such plans, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still need to stop the Russian troops from advancing in their priority sectors. Therefore, Western assistance remains critically important for Ukraine's ability to stabilize the front line in 2025.

Budanov predicts that 2025 will be better than 2024 for Ukraine

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, predicts that 2025 will be better for Ukraine than 2024. According to him, there are objective factors supporting this outlook. Russia, on the other hand, will have to make difficult decisions, says the head of the GUR.

"Last year, a journalist asked me what my expectations were for 2024. And I honestly said that, unfortunately, 2024 would be very hard. However, I have much more optimism regarding 2025. It will definitely be better than this year. There are objective factors for this, and I hope that in 2025 we will witness many positive events. Ultimately, these will bring us what we are all eagerly waiting for," Budanov stated.

According to Budanov, if Russia does not change its approach by mid-2025, they will certainly have to make very difficult decisions regarding their financial and economic system.