Ukraine is on the brink of a demographic crisis: an expert discusses potential solutions to avert the situation.

How can Ukraine bring back refugees and what is needed for this?

The return of refugees is a pressing issue that will directly impact Ukraine's post-war future. According to estimates from experts at the Center for Economic Recovery and the NGO EasyBusiness, the failure to return forced migrants will cost Ukraine $113 billion in GDP over the next 10 years. As a result, this will lead to a loss of approximately $45 billion in taxes during this period.

"About a third of the forced migrants who return cite 'homesickness' as the primary reason for their return. There can be several explanations; my personal opinion is that in Ukraine, you can be someone, unlike the status of a foreigner abroad. I believe people feel this. Additionally, socio-economic factors significantly influence the desire to return: living in dormitories or temporary housing, remote employment in Ukraine, caring for children, low income in host countries, and language barriers," explains Mr. Kryvolap.

Women of working age with higher education make up the largest share of forced migrants. According to the expert, they will be the hardest to bring back.

"During these more than 1,000 days of forced stay abroad, they have found employment or started their own businesses," said Kryvolap.

The main motivation for their return will be better living conditions, education for their children, and business development in Ukraine. The same issues that Ukraine faced even before the full-scale invasion persist.

Among other steps that could encourage refugees to return, Kryvolap mentions the following points:

• the ability for Ukrainian children to learn remotely;
• simplification of residence permits for foreigners married to Ukrainians;
• multiple citizenship;
• assistance in obtaining services for IDPs.

Remote education for Ukrainian children abroad is crucial as it will maintain their connection to Ukrainian culture and encourage them to enroll in Ukrainian universities: "In most European universities, tuition is generally more expensive for foreigners. A diploma from Ukrainian schools will allow our children to obtain higher education in Ukraine."

Another important issue raised by Kryvolap is the need to simplify residency conditions in Ukraine for foreigners. Over the three years of war, many international marriages have formed both in Ukraine and abroad, but bureaucratic procedures hinder foreigners from obtaining residency permits. Kryvolap also emphasizes the necessity of implementing multiple citizenship, as this will help maintain ties with the diaspora and expand Ukrainian cultural influence abroad.

Another step that will help Ukraine bring back forced migrants is assistance in obtaining IDP status and ensuring support from the moment they cross the border for this purpose.

"This concerns those forced migrants who left occupied or dangerous areas and will now have to seek a new home in Ukraine," Kryvolap is convinced.

The expert also notes that the return of refugees should be voluntary: "Our people, returning to Ukraine of their own accord and with a clear purpose of returning, will bring the skills and experience gained in European countries." This will allow Ukraine to modernize its economy, create more competitive products, and develop democracy.

Is there a need for a separate ministry to handle the issue of refugee returns?

Kryvolap's answer is yes:

"People may have different views on the idea of creating a new ministry or agency for returns, but the fact is that this new direction will require specialists who will focus on bringing Ukrainians home and maintaining ties with those who have not yet returned. Essentially, they should come to work, brew coffee, and focus solely on this. Israel has been following this path for a long time," the expert replied.

However, when it comes to whether Ukraine can return to pre-war demographic levels, there is no definitive answer. It is unknown when the war will end, what the security guarantees will be, how many Ukrainians will return from forced migration, and how many will leave, among other factors.

Here, a mathematical indicator is important: to ensure the reproduction of generations, each Ukrainian woman must give birth to 2.15 children. There are basic factors that will encourage people to want to have 2-3 children in the family. These include security, a high standard of living, and conditions for development, education, work, and self-fulfillment.

Does Ukraine need immigrants from third countries to overcome the demographic crisis?

Kryvolap cites estimates from experts at the Center for Economic Recovery and the NGO EasyBusiness. They determined that for Ukraine to be economically sustainable and restore GDP annually by 5-7% by 2030, it will be short of 3 to 4.5 million workers. This means that by 2030, 2 million Ukrainian citizens will exit the labor market due to aging, a lack of youth, migration processes, and similar issues. Therefore, changes in this direction are definitely needed. Currently, the expert sees several paths to resolving the problem.

Kryvolap identifies three main options for a way out:

• economic inclusion — engaging categories that have historically been less involved in the labor market (people with disabilities, women, the "silver generation," etc.);
• increasing labor productivity (including through investments and technology);
• attracting foreign workers.

Kryvolap noted that the more effectively the first two directions are developed, the less need there will be to resort to the third. In Ukraine, there has traditionally been an approach to preserve jobs for Ukrainians. However, he states that the problem is that there will be fewer Ukrainians than the jobs needed for the massive and unprecedented recovery.

According to Kryvolap, Ukraine can attract specialists from Europe and Eastern countries for recovery, but this requires an increase in profitable international business in the industry. In other words, the integration of the Ukrainian economy into the global market and attracting investments into the country.

"Ukraine has opportunities for nearshoring, for energy recovery, and opportunities related to relocating production from Asia to bordering Ukrainian regions. However, investments in Ukraine have always been challenging. In addition to the risks associated with war, issues with the rule of law and the business climate hinder investment attraction. Protection of property rights, functioning courts, and the absence of corruption in law enforcement and regulatory bodies are essential. Without these, business stability cannot be maintained, and recovery simply will not happen," Kryvolap explained.