Scientists have nearly completely ruled out the threat posed by an asteroid that was previously thought to potentially collide with Earth in one of the most densely populated regions in 2032.
The likelihood of a collision with the recently discovered celestial body was estimated at 3 percent; 2024 YR4 topped global asteroid risk lists.
The European Space Agency has reduced the probability to 0.001 percent, while NASA has lowered it to 0.0017 percent. This indicates that the celestial body will safely pass by Earth in 2032, and there will be no collision threat for the next century.
The reason for this reassessment is a better understanding by scientists of its trajectory, marking what is referred to as the exit from the uncertainty zone. Paul Chodas, who leads NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, confirmed to the Associated Press that a collision in 2032 is now excluded. Telescopes around the world will continue to monitor 2024 YR4, constantly refining its trajectory and physical characteristics.
The asteroid was discovered in December 2024 and measures between 40 and 90 meters, comparable to a football field. If it were to collide with Earth, it could devastate an entire city. "The asteroid, no longer posing a significant threat to Earth, has provided us with an invaluable opportunity for study," stated NASA.
In the coming years, several new telescopes—specifically, Vera Rubin and Flyeye—will assist researchers in detecting hazardous objects more quickly, while the European early warning mission NEOMIR, currently in development, will serve as an important addition to the planetary defense system.