Russia's nuclear arsenal is now under heightened scrutiny following the launch of a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, directed at Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin stated that the unprecedented attack using the so-called "Oreshnik" missile is a direct response to Ukraine's use of missiles produced by the U.S. and the U.K. to strike targets deep within Russian territory.
He also warned that military facilities in Western countries that have allowed Ukraine to use their weapons against Russia may become targets.
The escalation occurred just days after the Russian president approved minor yet significant changes to the country's nuclear doctrine, allowing for a nuclear response to conventional, non-nuclear attacks on Russian territory.
While Western officials, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, dismissed the notion of an imminent nuclear strike by Moscow, experts caution that recent events have increased the likelihood of such an occurrence.
What do we know about Russia's stockpile of nuclear weapons?
How large is Russia's nuclear arsenal?
According to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Russia possesses more nuclear warheads than any other country—approximately 5,580, which accounts for 47% of the world's total stockpile.
However, only 1,710 of these weapons are deployed, which is slightly more than the 1,670 deployed by the United States.
Both countries have enough nuclear capability to annihilate each other multiple times and possess significantly more nuclear warheads than the other seven nuclear states in the world: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom.
Of the warheads deployed by Moscow, it is estimated that 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 are based on heavy bombers.
According to FAS, there are no signs that Russia is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal, but the Federation warns of a possible future increase as the country replaces single-warhead missiles with those capable of carrying multiple warheads.
What could trigger a Russian nuclear response?
The previous 2020 doctrine stated that nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, "when the very existence of the state is threatened."
Now, the conditions under which a nuclear response may be taken have changed in three key ways:
- Russia will consider the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on its territory using conventional arms, such as cruise missiles, drones, and tactical aviation.
- It may launch a nuclear strike in response to aggression from a non-nuclear state acting "with the participation or support of a nuclear state," as in the case of Ukraine.
- In coordination with President Lukashenko, Moscow will apply the same criteria in the event of an attack on Belarusian territory.
Is the West responding?
When Putin approved the updated nuclear protocol last week, many Western leaders interpreted it as saber-rattling.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany and its partners "will not be intimidated" and accused Putin of "playing on our fears."
However, since Russia deployed a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in an attack on Dnipro, European leaders have raised alarms.
"The last few dozen hours have shown that the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday.
According to Dutch media reports, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is in Florida for urgent talks with President-elect Donald Trump, likely to discuss the recent escalation.
NATO and Ukraine are set to hold an extraordinary meeting in Brussels next Tuesday to discuss the situation and possible responses from allies, sources from Euronews report.