Euronews:
- Central Asia, rich in oil, gas, and strategic minerals, and being a crossroads of Eurasia, is a zone of geopolitical interest for Russia, China, and the West. How might the elections in the USA alter or amplify American influence in the region?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Firstly, American and Western diplomatic language does not recognize the term "zone of geopolitical interests," or at least feels uncomfortable with it. The then-President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, spoke about a zone of state interests for Russia after the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.
Under the Biden administration, the volume of American aid to Central Asia has significantly decreased, as the U.S. withdrew troops from Afghanistan and funds were redirected to Ukraine. President-elect Donald D. Trump acknowledges the importance of the region's natural resources and is interested in countering China and possibly Russia. It is in the strategic interests of the U.S. and the EU to develop deeper ties with the region, including investments, trade, transportation links, and security cooperation.
Euronews:
- What has been the main dynamic of relations between Russia and Central Asia since 1991? Have relations always been contentious or cooperative, and what has defined these relations?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Relations among former Soviet republics during the early years of Yeltsin's presidency were relatively cordial. Russia was focused on its internal issues. Central Asian countries seized the opportunity to strengthen their independence. The first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, was a key figure in this state-building process as the leader of the largest country in the region by territory and GDP, with the longest border with Russia.
Unlike the three Baltic states, Central Asian countries did not have recent periods of statehood formation.
Unlike the three Baltic states, Central Asian countries did not have recent periods of statehood formation. They needed to undergo three simultaneous transformations: political, economic, and international. This involved creating independent political institutions free from centralized control from Moscow, implementing economic reforms aimed at building a market economy and dismantling the failed communist model of centralized planning, and participating in international relations as independent states no longer dependent on decisions from the Kremlin. Kazakhstan has been a leader in all three processes.
Euronews:
- What legal and diplomatic mechanisms connect Russia with Central Asia? Can this be attributed solely to the post-Soviet colonial and cultural legacy, or is it something else?
Janusz Bugajski:
- After centuries of expansion, by the late 19th century, the tsarist empire had conquered all of Central Asia. The legacy of this repressive colonial policy persists to this day, as a new generation of Kazakhs, Uzbeks, and other peoples rediscover their national identity and history. The role of national leaders such as Nazarbayev and Karimov in this national revival is still insufficiently recognized. Contrary to Moscow's expectations, no Central Asian state openly supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the war itself deepened Kazakhstan's reassessment of the Soviet era as an age of imperial oppression.
The leaders of Central Asian countries fully understand that Russia remains one of the dominant powers in Eurasia and is supported by China.
At the same time, the leaders of Central Asian countries fully understand that Russia remains one of the dominant powers in Eurasia, supported by China, another great power. A significant portion of their trade is still conducted with Moscow. They cannot alienate Russia through hostile actions. Instead, they must pursue a policy of balance among Russia, China, and the West to maintain their maneuverability. Kazakhstan has been at the forefront of this movement for decades to protect its young state and ensure economic development.
Euronews:
- Well, but now the balance is “unbalanced” due to the war in Ukraine... How is Russia trying to maintain its influence over Central Asian states?
Janusz Bugajski:
- The war against Ukraine has significantly weakened Russia in terms of its military potential and financial resources. At the same time, Moscow may use political, informational, and financial tools to attempt to replace the governments of Central Asian countries deemed too independent or pro-Western, similar to Georgia or Moldova. The most effective way for Central Asian states to defend against such a scenario consists of three parts.
Firstly, multi-vector foreign policy, which Nazarbayev has pursued since Kazakhstan's independence, ensures greater influence on the international stage. Secondly, strengthening regional integration will reduce economic dependence on Russia or China. Thirdly, closer economic and trade ties with Europe and the USA will allow the transatlantic community to become more interested in the security and independence of Central Asia. Links with the Pacific region, including Japan and Korea, are also important.
Central Asian countries cannot boast of a NATO nuclear umbrella to protect their security. Instead, they can better safeguard their national interests through multi-vector policies.
Central Asian countries cannot boast of a NATO nuclear umbrella to protect their security. Instead, they can better safeguard their national interests through multi-vector policies. This entails avoiding close cooperation with any single state and engaging with numerous international organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Turkic Council, and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA).
Notably, Kazakhstan has just announced its refusal to join BRICS.
In such formats, constructive initiatives can be implemented to strengthen Central Asia through the resolution of any border issues and the establishment of a unified front against terrorism, the development of cultural cooperation, and environmental protection. Kazakhstan has also invested in the Nurly Zhol infrastructure development program.
Euronews:
- Kazakhstan, in particular, is trying to present itself as a new diplomatic center, a "steppe Switzerland," notably through its mediation efforts in the Syrian conflict. Can Central Asia play any role in ending the war in Ukraine? And can it do so to its advantage?
Janusz Bugajski:
- Just as Austria, Finland, and Switzerland played their roles in reducing tensions during the Cold War, today's global antagonists could meet on neutral territory in Kazakhstan, as was the case in Vienna, Helsinki, Geneva, and Lausanne in the last century. Although Central Asian states may not be able to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, they could serve as a neutral venue for discussing and resolving issues related to the war, such as prisoner exchanges, protection of civilian infrastructure, or ensuring grain exports through the Black Sea. Coordination of actions regarding nuclear safety and environmental protection worldwide is also of great importance, and Kazakhstan, in particular, aims to provide a platform for international cooperation.
Euronews:
- What would you advise Central Asian countries to do to avoid becoming the next victim of Russia? Is there a role for China in this?
Janusz Bugajski:
- The key to strengthening independence and preventing entanglement in competing blocs in a polarized world lies in the simultaneous pursuit of greater regional integration and international engagement by Central Asian states. This will enhance their economic power, investment potential, security, and international standing. A more consolidated and unified region can better protect itself from negative foreign influence.
A more consolidated and unified region can better protect itself from negative foreign influence.
After the collapse of the USSR, attempts at regional integration were made, but they had limited effect. In 1994, President Nazarbayev initiated an agreement to establish a Central Asian Union with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, initially focusing on economic cooperation. This plan was abandoned due to ongoing rivalries between some states, disputes over scarce water resources, competition for foreign investments, and growing attempts by Beijing and Moscow to dominate the region through a "divide and rule" strategy.
Russian initiatives like the Eurasian Economic Union and China's Belt and Road Initiative were launched to undermine independent regional initiatives in Central Asia. In 2007, Nazarbayev proposed the creation of a Central Asian Economic Union, which would facilitate the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people. The union's objectives would include strengthening regional security, economic growth, and political stability.