Russian forces are advancing in the western part of the Donetsk region. They are currently moving towards the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, a locality located to the east of the border between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Considering the current pace of Moscow's advance, the Washington-based analytical center Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has identified several potential courses of action for the Russian military command.
The Russian troops may push west from the town of Kurakhove along the H15 highway, where they have already captured some areas. This would allow the Russian army to take more advantageous positions from which they could cover a chain of settlements along the highway to the northwest and northeast of Vuhledar.
They may also continue their advance west along the road to Andriivka while simultaneously attacking a "pocket" to the northeast of Vuhledar, attempting to force Ukrainian troops to retreat westward to avoid encirclement.
This maneuver could enable Russian forces to capture tactical positions in the area and realign the front line from Sontseve to Konstantynivka, pushing them approximately 23 km east of the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The capture of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine within their administrative borders has been a top priority for the Kremlin since Russia's first invasion more than a decade ago.
ISW notes that to achieve the Kremlin's goal of seizing the entire region, Russia will need to capture more than 8,000 square kilometers of territory.
However, at the same time, Reuters reported that the current pace of Russia's advance in Ukraine is the fastest since the early days of the full-scale invasion in early 2022.
Is the city of Zaporizhzhia in danger?
Ukrainian military officials are warning of potential ground operations by Russia against the city of Zaporizhzhia, located 30 kilometers from the current front line.
The timing and possible scale of this potential offensive remain unclear, partly due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' incursion into the Kursk region.
The commander of one of the Ukrainian brigades stated that the incursion into Kursk halted Russia's initial plans to advance on Zaporizhzhia and that the Russian military command has redeployed nearly half of the 20,000-30,000 Russian troops originally gathered for the offensive on Zaporizhzhia to the Kursk region.
A battalion commander noted that ongoing Russian actions in Kursk could delay the offensive on Zaporizhzhia, and that Russian forces might conduct an attack with a smaller troop grouping than initially planned.
On Sunday, The Economist reported, citing sources in Ukrainian intelligence, that Russian troops are preparing for a future offensive operation involving up to 130,000 personnel against the city.
Increase in Air Attacks
Meanwhile, overnight, Russia launched 188 drones against most regions of Ukraine, Ukrainian Air Forces reported on Tuesday, calling it a record number of drones used in a single attack. In the Kyiv region, air alerts lasted for more than seven hours overnight.
According to authorities, most of the drones were intercepted; however, residential buildings and critical infrastructure, including the national power grid, were damaged. There have been no reports of casualties in the 17 regions that were shelled.
Ukraine is experiencing a difficult winter—the third in the context of the full-scale invasion and Moscow's efforts to destroy the country's energy infrastructure and weaken the will of Ukrainians to resist.