As Russian troops continue to build up forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, Moscow, according to Kyiv, may also be planning a swift advance to the south.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Kyiv is monitoring the movement of Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region and perceives it as a "real threat." This statement followed a report from the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian military forces repelled an attempted advance by Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, as reported by the commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr Pivnenko.
Zaporizhzhia is located approximately 30 kilometers from the current front line. Concerns are growing that it may become Moscow's next target.
In the initial weeks of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops occupied about two-thirds of the Zaporizhzhia region but were halted at Vasylivka, a town located 30 km south of the region's administrative capital.
Vasylivka served as a major checkpoint for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians evacuating from the occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region, including the significant railway hub of Melitopol, coastal settlements along the Sea of Azov, and the city of Mariupol.
Since February, Zaporizhzhia has welcomed over 275,000 internally displaced persons, which accounts for a quarter of the city's population prior to the 2022 invasion.
In recent weeks, Russia has significantly increased airstrikes on Zaporizhzhia, employing guided bombs against civilian infrastructure.
Zaporizhzhia Offensive and Kursk Incursion
It remains unclear when Russia might initiate an offensive on the city of Zaporizhzhia, if it plans to do so at all.
However, according to Ukrainian military sources, Moscow initially intended to do this much earlier had it not been for Ukraine's unexpected incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August of this year.
The Economist, citing sources within Ukrainian intelligence, reported earlier this week that Russian forces are preparing for a future offensive operation involving up to 130,000 personnel against Zaporizhzhia.
Nevertheless, the Washington-based analytical center Institute for the Study of War (ISW) quoted a commander of a Ukrainian brigade stating that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk halted Moscow's original plans for an offensive on Zaporizhzhia and that the Russian military command has redeployed nearly half of the 20,000-30,000 troops initially designated for the offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region to Kursk.
A battalion commander noted that ongoing Russian efforts in Kursk could delay the offensive on the city of Zaporizhzhia and that Russian forces might conduct a counter-offensive with a smaller grouping than originally planned.
Does Russia Have Enough Personnel for a New Offensive?
According to UK Chief of Defence Staff Tony Radakin, last month Russia suffered its most significant troop losses since the beginning of the war in Ukraine while simultaneously achieving territorial gains: "On average, over 1,500 people are killed or wounded every day."
As reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on Friday, Russia's daily losses in Ukraine surpassed 2,000 for the first time. It is not specified who exactly has been killed or wounded, although the general consensus is that this figure includes those killed, wounded, missing in action, and prisoners of war.
It is nearly impossible to determine accurate figures for both sides, as Kyiv and Moscow conceal their losses.
The latest figure provided by Russian authorities is 5,937 soldiers killed as of September 2022.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 80,973 Russian military personnel have died, according to figures reported by the BBC Russian Service and Mediazona on Friday.
Regarding Kyiv, in February, Zelensky acknowledged that 31,000 Ukrainian fighters had been killed.
On Tuesday, The Economist published its estimates, suggesting that between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the start of the Russian invasion in early 2022, with an additional 400,000 severely wounded and unable to continue fighting.
According to these figures, since February 2022, Ukraine and Russia have lost more personnel than the US did during the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined.