The government of French Prime Minister Michel Barnier collapsed on Wednesday after a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament).
The left coalition "New People's Front" and the far-right party "National Rally" initiated votes of no confidence against the former chief Brexit negotiator after Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push through the 2025 social security budget plan without a parliamentary vote.
What’s next for France?
Michel Barnier is likely to be asked to remain in office as caretaker, similar to how former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal was asked to stay after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly last summer following a crushing defeat for his party in the EU elections.
The caretaker government will handle current affairs and will not be able to vote on new laws.
The appointment of a new prime minister depends on Macron, and he has no specific timelines.
However, choosing a new prime minister will be challenging, as they will need to withstand a vote of confidence from 577 parliament members in a fragmented chamber with no clear majority.
This summer, it took the head of state two months to select a candidate that he was confident would not be automatically rejected by deputies. New elections for the legislative body can only be scheduled for July next year.
Who could be the next prime minister?
Several names were mentioned on Wednesday, including the current Minister of Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu or François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem party.
Some parties within the left coalition NFP have narrowed their initial choice to Lucie Castet, an economist and civil servant.
Castet, whose name was first proposed this summer by the NFP and quickly dismissed by Macron, stated on Tuesday that she is "ready to govern."
Macron faced sharp criticism for taking on the role of finding candidates himself during the summer, not allowing political parties to participate in the process.
"If this time the president wants to prevent another government collapse, he will have to allow deputies to come to a more consensus figure," said François-Xavier Mille, a political scientist and professor of public law at the University of the French West Indies.
However, according to Emmanuel Rivière, a public opinion expert and political advisor, the choice of the future prime minister should focus on the project rather than on a specific individual.
"We need a project and an agreement, not a personality. It should not be Macron conducting the casting. An agreement is necessary to overcome the budget hurdle. It could be a pure technocrat with a specific mission - to secure France's budget for 2025," he said in a phone interview with Euronews.
What’s next for Macron?
Although Macron's presidential term will last until spring 2027, some parties are calling for the head of state to resign due to the political chaos that has arisen following his decision to dissolve parliament.
According to Rivière, this is another blow to Macron, whose authority is declining both domestically and internationally due to the political crisis.
Only 22% of the French are satisfied with Macron, according to an opinion poll conducted in late November by Ifop.
Macron has so far responded to these calls by promising to fulfill his role "with all his energy, until the very last second."
"Resignation is possible, but the timing is inappropriate. It would only add chaos and confusion and change nothing about how fragmented the National Assembly is," Mille said.
What about the budget?
If the budget is not approved by December 20, the government may use its constitutional powers to adopt the budget by decree, Mille explained.
In the case of the social security budget, an ordinance can be adopted after 50 days of deadlock, while the national budget can be approved after 70 days of debates.
Another law could also extend the 2024 budget into 2025, but this would only be a temporary solution, Mille clarified in an interview with Euronews.
While France is not facing a U.S.-style economic shutdown, political instability could scare off investors.
Currently, France is under pressure from the EU regarding its spending. The country's budget deficit is estimated at 6% of GDP, while according to EU fiscal rules, the debt should not exceed the threshold of 3%.