The Kremlin aims to annex Belarus within the next 10 years to use it as a tool for aggression against NATO. This conclusion has been drawn by experts from the American "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW). The report "The Silent Conquest of Russia: Belarus", published on the analytical center's website, states that "Russia's efforts for the effective annexation of Belarus create strategic risks for the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine."
"The Kremlin is in the endgame of strategic efforts for the effective annexation of Belarus, which have been ongoing for several decades, and which will permanently enhance Russia's military and economic potential to achieve its revanchist geopolitical goals against the U.S. and NATO," the report notes. "Moscow's efforts for the effective annexation of Belarus within the Union State, although incomplete, have already made significant progress, necessitating NATO to reassess the implications of Russia's growing control over Belarus, as well as the capabilities and resources that Russia may utilize against the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine as a result."
"Belarus is not merely an ally of Russia; the Kremlin is transforming it into a strategic instrument that ensures Russia's ability to project power globally," the analysts assert. "The Kremlin will leverage its recent, yet deeply rooted successes in Belarus to offset the costs of its protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia's recovery post-war in Ukraine, and help prepare for future conflicts faster than it could independently. Policymakers need to start planning for a future where Belarus will not only be a captive country but will also effectively be an extension of the Russian Federation."
The authors of the report believe that the Kremlin seeks to de facto annex Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a federal government dominated by Russia, which would grant Moscow predominant authority over most, if not all, aspects of Belarusian governance. This includes establishing complete operational and administrative control over the Belarusian armed forces in peacetime and the permanent basing of Russian troops; a political union with a federal government dominated by the Kremlin, featuring a common set of federal laws and institutions for Belarusians and Russians to be governed as a single state; and a fully integrated economy with common markets, free movement of labor, unified laws, and a currency union.
"Russia's efforts for the effective annexation of Belarus, while not complete, are at an advanced stage and have already reached points that pose a threat to the security of the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine, as well as an existential threat to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state," the institute's experts note, emphasizing that "Russia's military successes are turning Belarus into a base from which Moscow can deploy Russian armed forces against NATO and Ukraine."
The Kremlin is close to the effective annexation of Belarus and is likely to achieve this within a decade if current trends continueInstitute for the Study of War
The West must reassess its requirements for defending NATO's eastern flank and maintaining Ukraine's defense, considering Russia's creeping annexation of Belarus's population and resources, the report's authors warn.
"Russia is winning in Belarus," ISW states. "The Kremlin is close to the effective annexation of Belarus and is likely to achieve this within a decade if current trends continue."
According to the analytical center's experts, NATO must plan for a likely future in which Belarus is primarily, if not entirely, controlled by Russia, regardless of the outcome of its invasion of Ukraine.
"The Kremlin intends to advance the effective annexation of Belarus even in the most favorable scenario where the West helps Ukraine to win," ISW is convinced. "An increasingly likely Russian victory in Belarus will have serious implications for NATO's security and Russia's capabilities even in that case."