Last week, the new leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, delivered one of his first speeches since taking office.
In his address, Qassem stated that the movement had agreed to the "Biden-Macron ceasefire deal on September 23," but he blamed its failure on the Israelis, noting that they killed the long-time leader of the group, Hassan Nasrallah, just four days later.
The Hezbollah leader offered militants a choice: "victory or martyrdom."
However, despite Qassem's belligerent message and confident tone, many experts doubt that Hezbollah will endure for much longer.
Middle East expert Michael Stephens from the Royal United Services Institute in London told Euronews that Hezbollah has suffered significantly from the Israeli campaign and has consequently become a fundamentally different organization.
"The days of grand funerals, the days of major leadership elections are over," he said. "Everything they do will be obstructed by Israel, which makes their position extremely precarious."
Former Human Rights Watch director Kenneth Roth, who monitors events in the region, told Euronews that Hezbollah's leadership "has been decimated."
This year, Israel has killed several high-ranking officials from both the political and military wings of Hezbollah, including six of its leaders. Among them are Nabil Kaouk, the deputy head of the political council, as well as commanders of drone, missile, and elite combat units of the militia.
Stephens suggested that, based on the words of Hezbollah's own leader, Qassem is more likely to face "martyrdom" than victory.
"He won't last long. I guarantee you he won't be around next year," Stephens said, concluding that "they are in deep trouble."
"Far down the hierarchy": who is Naim Qassem?
Sheikh Naim Mohammad Qassem was born into a Shia family in southern Lebanon, grew up in Beirut, and studied theology under the prominent Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, whose sermons were cited as one of the main sources of inspiration for Hezbollah.
Qassem began his career as a chemistry teacher but never strayed from radical Shia politics, joining the Shia militia Amal Movement in the 1970s before leaving it in 1979.
In the 1980s, he became one of the founders of Hezbollah, and in 1991 he was appointed deputy secretary-general of the organization, a position he held until he took over the group this year.
However, many Middle Eastern observers doubt that Qassem has real authority.
"This guy is far down the hierarchy," Roth said in an interview with Euronews.
Stephens agreed, stating that Hezbollah is "descending to third-tier people" and speculated that "regional commanders" may now control many localized battalions, with Qassem serving more as a ceremonial figure.
"The hammer turned out to be a toothpick"
Given that Israel has destroyed much of Hezbollah's central leadership and over 3,500 members of the group since the outbreak of hostilities following the October 7 attacks and Israel's military campaign in Gaza, some are questioning how the once highly organized militant group will enforce the ceasefire agreement.
According to Stephens, "if they don't, Israel will simply continue to eliminate them, and they are doing so quite successfully, albeit with horrific and terrifying losses."
U.S. proposals reportedly would allow Israel to continue targeted strikes on Lebanese territory, and this move has been widely criticized for its "unilateralism."
Hezbollah's main international supporter, Iran, has also reportedly pushed the group to accept the terms of the deal. In recent months, Israel has carried out numerous strikes against targets in Iran, and the Tehran government is unwilling to face new attacks. As Hezbollah's capabilities have been severely weakened, the group's utility for Iran has sharply declined.
"They were a hammer keeping Israel from attacking Iran," Roth says. "That hammer has turned out to be a toothpick."