Last year, during his presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours.
"I will make a deal in one day," he said.
Neither the media nor the public have forgotten this promise. Analysts believe that the issue of the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II is now one of the key topics for the incoming administration.
In his victory speech after the U.S. presidential elections on November 6, Trump did not mention Ukraine, but hinted at how significant his second presidential term would be for a country devastated by the Russian invasion.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated him in a post on X, recalling their personal talks in New York in September. "I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in foreign policy. This approach can practically bring about a just peace in Ukraine," Zelensky wrote.
However, the 47th President of the United States seems to have realized that fulfilling this promise is not feasible. He recently stated that a six-month timeframe seems more realistic.
Former Ukrainian Minister of Economy Timofey Milovanov told Euronews that this is a positive sign for Kyiv.
"The worst-case scenario would be Ukraine's capitulation. And that's a 24-hour scenario where, essentially, the U.S. has leverage over Ukraine and the EU in terms of support, but not much leverage over Russia, which means accepting its demands and pressuring Ukraine to comply with them. That’s why the '24 hours' scenario is the worst possible for Ukraine. So the fact that we are now talking about six or three months indicates that they will be increasing pressure on Russia. And therefore, they need time," said the former minister.
"New levers of pressure on Russia are needed"
According to Milovanov, there are signs that these levers are already being created, possibly in coordination between the two presidential administrations – against the backdrop of the "last attempt" by outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden to confiscate Russian assets worth 300 billion dollars (291.2 billion euros).
These funds belong to the Russian Central Bank and were frozen three years ago after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Most of the money is still held in European banks, with a small portion in American ones.
"The news is not about the confiscation attempt itself, but rather that this last attempt is unexpectedly being coordinated, according to media reports, with the Trump administration. Essentially, it’s a signal to Russia: we are trying to find leverage against you; if you want to get your money back, we are ready to negotiate," Milovanov said.
This indicates that the Trump administration is moving towards a scenario that is "not very favorable for Russia," which is "good news for Ukraine," he explained.
Our interlocutor acknowledges that many in Ukraine are concerned about the country's future with Trump's return to the White House.
"They say that Trump is trying to sell us out," noted Milovanov, asserting that Ukraine is "in quite a good position." "Things may not be as good as they could be, but they are much better than they could have been," he added.
However, it is not guaranteed that a "not very favorable scenario for Russia" will be acceptable to Ukraine and its citizens.
Even during the election debates, Trump dodged the question of whether he wanted Ukraine to win, merely stating: "I want the war to end."
No "Trojan Horses"
In the opinion of the former minister, it is essential to consider the expectations of Ukrainians, specifically what they are willing or unwilling to accept.
"The reality is that we need to take into account what people are willing to accept and what they are not. What they are not willing to tolerate is a change in the constitution, disarmament of Ukraine, or the transfer of unoccupied territories. What people are willing to accept, according to polls, is a sort of temporary recognition that we do not control the territory. That is, the de facto situation. Thus, people are ready to accept reality but are not willing to concede," Milovanov stated.
According to him, ultimately, Vladimir Putin will have to present this in Russia as a victory, while Ukrainian authorities must provide their citizens with guarantees against future invasions.
"Anything that creates a 'Trojan horse' for Russia to return and seize more territory is unacceptable," he explained.
However, signed agreements will clearly be insufficient for this, considering that many of the previous ones have been violated by Russia, concluded our interlocutor.