During his inauguration in January, Donald Trump promised to send Americans to Mars. Analysts believe this statement was made with the intention of appealing to his ally, billionaire Elon Musk.
The goal set by the White House has raised many questions among experts—largely because humanity has yet to return to the Moon, which is considered a less complex task in cosmic terms.
How likely is it that humans in general, and Americans in particular, will set foot on Mars before the end of Trump’s term in 2029?
Far and Dusty
Mars is located 225 million kilometers from Earth, and the journey there would be the farthest space travel ever undertaken by humans.
The American space agency NASA has successfully landed robots on Mars, but only 12 of its 19 attempts have been successful. Missions involving humans, experts clarify, present new challenges that still need to be addressed.
Here are some of the difficulties. Mars has a thin atmosphere filled with dust, and is made up of approximately 95% carbon dioxide. Any craft attempting to land on the planet must be protected from overheating, which NASA states will require new solutions in navigation technologies.
On the planet itself, astronauts may encounter prolonged dust storms, reduced solar energy necessary for powering devices, and strong winds, as noted in a NASA document from 2024.
Moreover, if something happens to the equipment, the remote location limits repair options. According to NASA representatives, advanced nuclear-powered propulsion systems, inflatable chassis, spacesuits, laboratories, satellites, and surface power supply systems capable of withstanding extreme temperature and pressure fluctuations on the Red Planet need to be developed for a successful mission.
Preparation is crucial: experts estimate that astronauts will need about six months to reach Mars, and approximately two years to complete the mission from start to finish.
Heading to the Moon, Thinking About Mars
According to Hermann Ludwig Moeller, director of the European Space Policy Institute, many technologies that NASA plans for Mars may first be tested on the Moon. Currently, NASA is working on the Artemis II and III missions to send humans to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions in the 1960s.
To harmonize lunar and Martian missions, NASA is developing the "Lunar and Mars Architecture" project, studying the interconnections between these two missions. For example, landing spacecraft on the Moon would provide "valuable insights" before a landing on Mars, specialists point out.
After a series of delays, launches under the Artemis program could take place as early as 2026.
Moeller warns that China, Europe, or India could win the renewed race for the Moon if the Trump administration focuses solely on Mars, sidelining lunar projects.
And while Trump has yet to reveal his plans regarding a mission to the Red Planet, Moeller is convinced that Musk will be involved.
The billionaire donated $277 million to Trump’s campaign and has become one of the president’s closest advisors.
His company SpaceX is also one of NASA's contractors. Musk has already announced plans to launch five unmanned Starship spacecraft to Mars by 2027. He explained this timeline by the proximity of Earth and Mars, which typically occurs just under every two years. According to Musk, if the mission is successful, his company will begin crewed flights in four years.